How a Potential Trump Election Win Could Shape Global Politics and Diplomacy 

As Donald Trump vies for another term as U.S. president, the prospect of his return to office has sparked widespread debate. With a platform emphasising "America First," Trump has historically adopted an untraditional, often unpredictable approach to international relations, focusing on bilateral agreements and policies prioritising American interests. If he wins the 2024 election, Trump’s impact could reshape global alliances, intensify economic rivalries, and shift international responses to security, trade, and environmental issues. This article examines key areas of international relations and geopolitics that could experience substantial change in a second Trump term.

The strain on U.S.-Europe Relations and NATO

Trump’s previous term saw a notable shift in U.S.-European relations. He criticized NATO allies for what he viewed as insufficient defence spending and signalled that the U.S. might reconsider its commitments if European nations didn’t increase their contributions. If Trump reenters the White House, NATO could face new pressures as Europe grapples with increased security concerns, particularly with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Russian aggression. European countries may respond by strengthening their own defence systems and exploring more autonomous security measures, potentially advancing EU-specific defence initiatives. This could make Europe less dependent on U.S. support but might also create a rift within NATO, altering its power dynamics and potentially weakening its influence on global security issues.

U.S.-China Rivalry: Trade Wars and Technological Competition:

The U.S.-China relationship is one of the most complex and significant dynamics in modern geopolitics. During his previous term, Trump escalated tensions with China through tariffs, trade restrictions, and efforts to curtail Chinese technological influence. If reelected, he could introduce even more aggressive economic policies against China, including tariffs potentially as high as 60% on certain Chinese imports, and increased scrutiny on tech companies. Such actions could push countries worldwide to choose sides, potentially leading to a divided global economy. For nations in Southeast Asia and other regions economically tied to both superpowers, this rivalry could pose challenges as they navigate a strained supply chain and trade relations. Additionally, global consumer goods might see price increases due to supply chain disruptions, impacting consumers and businesses worldwide.

The Middle East: Deepening U.S.-Israel Ties and Tensions with Iran

Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East has historically focused on bolstering Israel’s position, exemplified by the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations. Should Trump return to office, these ties might strengthen further, possibly encouraging more Arab states to join the accords. However, Trump’s stance on Iran could intensify regional tensions; his withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal and imposition of strict sanctions during his last term strained U.S.-Iran relations and heightened Middle Eastern instability. Increased U.S.-Israel collaboration under a second Trump administration could prompt other Middle Eastern nations to align with the U.S.-Israel bloc, leaving Iran increasingly isolated. This isolation could fuel regional conflicts and disrupt oil markets, impacting global energy prices and potentially affecting economies that rely heavily on Middle Eastern oil.

Implications for the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Trump’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is another area where his influence could lead to significant change. Known for his more conciliatory attitude toward Russia, Trump has suggested that he might seek a diplomatic end to the conflict, which could involve scaling back U.S. military support for Ukraine. This approach may pressure European countries to either increase their support for Ukraine or pursue independent diplomatic solutions. A shift in U.S. policy could weaken Western unity in confronting Russian aggression, compelling European countries to take on a larger role in managing the conflict. Such a shift may result in new strategies for securing peace in Eastern Europe, though it could also embolden Russian ambitions.

Economic Policy: Return to Protectionism and Tax Reform

Domestically, a second Trump term could see the revival of his protectionist policies, focusing on American industries and reshaping international trade. Trump’s tax policies may once again favour deregulation and corporate tax cuts, benefiting American businesses but potentially creating ripples across global markets. Companies heavily invested in the U.S. might adapt to take advantage of these shifts, potentially at the expense of international investment. These policy changes could strengthen certain American industries but may also lead to economic instability in countries that rely on trade and investment with the United States.

Environmental Policy: Possible Setback for Global Climate Initiatives

Another area likely to see change is U.S. environmental policy. During his previous term, Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement and rolled back numerous environmental regulations, prioritizing economic interests over environmental concerns. A return to office could slow U.S. progress on climate initiatives and disrupt global climate action momentum. With the U.S. seen as a leader in climate policy, a reduced commitment to international agreements could embolden other countries to weaken their environmental goals, impacting the global response to climate change and potentially delaying progress on critical climate targets.

Conclusion

The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency brings a host of questions about how his "America First" approach will shape international relations. From strained NATO ties to a potential intensification of the U.S.-China rivalry, Middle Eastern realignments, shifts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and economic and environmental impacts, a second Trump term could have far-reaching implications for global stability and diplomatic relationships. As nations around the world watch and prepare for potential shifts in U.S. policy, the next American election promises to be a pivotal moment with long-lasting effects on global politics, economy, and security.